Solar Power Queensland – 2017 Installations and Projections

April, 2017 – Solar Power Queensland

Energex have released their monthly update of solar installations in south-east Queensland and it appears the number of consumers enjoying the grandfathered ‘premium’ feed of 44c/kWh has finally been overtaken by those with the ‘regular’ retail rate of 6c/kWh.

Solar Power Queensland
Solar Power Installation Queensland (source: onestepoffthegrid.com.au)

Released this week, the data shows Queensland has 1,174MW on 325,164 homes and businesses – the highest in Australia.

172,753 and 539MW of these consumers are still on the premium feed, which is lost upon a change of system or ownership. At its highest over 600MW was being generated at the $0.44c/kWh tariff. The government would be keen to cease as many of these premium feeds as possible before the agreement runs out in 2028 – as currently they’re paying 730% of the ‘normal’ rate. This isn’t as much as Victoria where the tariff was a whopping $0.60c/kWh!

Future Projections – Solar Power Queensland and Australia

According to Newsmaker, Solar PV market size for both residential and industrial sectors will exceed 5 million units by 2030 – to total around 16GW. There are currently around 1.6 million, with a combined capacity of over 5.7GW. (You can find a great deal of useful and detailed data on the Australian PV market from the Australian PV Institute.). Of particular interest is the fact that QLD has the highest monthly PV output by a considerable amount due to generous schemes by the government – and the Northern Territory outputs only 6,281MWh per month (opposed to Queensland’s 172,121MWh). If you want to read more about Solar Power in the Northern Territory we have a page discussing its slow uptake in more detail.

If you’re interested in Solar at your home, some of the major competitors worth checking out (a few don’t operate in Queensland) include  Jemena, United Energy, CitiPower and Powercor Australia, ActewAGL, AusGrid,  Energex, Horizon Power, SP AusNet, Essential Energy and Ergon amongst many others. Solar is growing at an amazing rate and as the cost of equipment and subsequent cost of MWH continues to lower it’ll become bigger and bigger. As the uptake of solar PV systems begins to even out it’ll be time to start looking at ‘smart’ energy storage – which will be able to predict trends based on househould usage habits, weather patterns and so on – with the aim of minimising your electricity bill.

Have a look at our article on Redback Technologies’ Energy Management Platform for more information.

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Battery storage – cost will drop to half of grid power within 5-10 years.

Some great predictions coming from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)’s final report on last year’s widespread energy outages in South Australia. SA Power Networks’ Ron Stobbe (operator of the local network in South Australia and owned by Spark Infrastructure) has predicted that the cost of battery storage will fall dramatically over the next 5-10 years. Stobbe says the cost of rooftop solar is already around 5c/kWh and he expects that battery storage will be around 10c/kWh of usable power. This combination of solar+storage (15c/kWh) represents less than half the cost of grid power in SA right now (35c/kWh).

According to RenewEconomy.com.au, the implications of these prices will be far reaching and are not just for the way the network businesses will be run. Retailers and generators (generally one and the same e.g. Origin) who operate the majority of centralised generators will have to move quickly or face the serious possibility of being left behind with this disruptive technology.

Rooftop Solar and Battery Storage in South Australia – Projections

Stobbe in the AEMO report noted that, of the 850k customers in SA, he thinks 70% of them will have roooftop solar by 2035. He estimates that 50% of these customers will also have battery storage by that date.  On their side, the CSIRO have estimated that in SA (a state who already meets half their energy needs through renewables (wind and solar)), 85% of the energy will be  sourced from renewable sources by 2035.

SA Power Networks are forecasting the current 650MW of solar power in SA to more than treble throughout this period – and what effect will this have on the current network and the centralised nature of energy? Stobbe noted that “there is no doubt the industry is changing significantly” and that “we have got to change too” – so it’s very interesting seeing the comments coming from big companies like SAPN who can see the writing on the wall.

Is There a Future for Large Generators?

Energy Networks Australia released the ‘Electricity Network Transformation Roadmap‘ late last year and it makes for fascinating reading as we continue the exciting, but the transition into a positive energy future for Australia and Australians. Does this mean we will see the old school model of centralised generators become a relic of the past? What percentage of energy will come from distributed generation rather than these generators in 2020? 2030? This depends largely on the government’s willingness to assist in the transition and how quickly the technology’s able to grow. We can’t wait to see what the 2020’s bring.

P.S. If you’re in Melbourne – keep an eye out for the 2017 Solar Energy Exhibition and Conference on May 3 and 4 – Australia’s peak industry event for solar and energy storage. It’s free to attend and you can register by clicking here.

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